Bonikowska: As long as Poland does not get the money from the EU „recovery fund“, the right-wing government will conduct a frontal attack against Brussels and also against Germany

Top Polish governement politicians have attacked the EU quite heavily this summer, accusing it of unfair attitude to Poland; prime minister Morawiecki even denounced the „imperialism“ cultivated by Germany and France and compared it to the behaviour of Russia. What are the reasons for this harsh rhetoric?

There are obviously two reasons – the pre-election campaign and the problem with EU funds.

Starting with the latter – the reason is the assumption of the Law and Justice ruling party that some little changes to the law governing the judiciary in Poland which was criticised by the EU would be sufficient to reach a compromise with the European Commission, which would unblock the money from the EU Recovery fund. They imagined that the governement will continue more or less with its way of reforming the judiciary and that the Commission will give the green light to the transfer of the money anyway.

The argument of the governement is that the money from the fund belongs to the member states and it is not up to the Commission to tell Warsaw what to do in order to secure it; it is beyond its competence and the money should come under all circumstances. And if it is not coming, if there is a problem, it means that Warsaw has to be tougher, because its compromise strategy does not work any more. Tougher means using all the means, including using vetos and blocking procedures. They are simply convinced that the Commission – and the other institutions including tribunals – has no right to interfere in internal Polish matters. And because the Commission continues to effectively block the money, you see this anti-Brussels campaign which is at the same time also very much anti-German.

Second reason is the election campaign – the right wing government is subject to severe criticism because of the covid consequences, then due to price hikes and inflation. People are frustrated and unhappy and the rating of the governement is falling – the ruling coalition is currently at circa 30 percent, while the Civic Coalition is rated at around 27 percent, „Poland 2050“ of Mr Holownia at circa 10 percent, Polish Coalition (Peoples Party) at 7 percent and the Left at around 9 percent. Which means that the opposition parties get more votes in the surveys than the United right. So they have to do something.

One of the methods, which was also successfully used in the past, is rousing the anti-German sentiment. There are often war-related emotions in the hearts of the people, in particular the older generation, who are the main electorate of the right wing governement, which are easy to unlock. It goes like this: The Germans want to control our country again; first they were invading us with military means during the war and now they are using other, more sophisticated methods. But the goal is the same – they want to steamroll over us, control us and we need to get our sovereignty back. We will not let them do it. It is a dangerous game.

Does this mean that the EU is not explained and understood as a community of equal states, but as some kind of German-French colony? What about the role of these two countries in the buildup of the European integration? How is it then possible that the Poles continue liking the EU?

The governement parties picture the EU as basically a German and French invention, a tool to control the other nations. Therefore the mentions of imperialism. When the simple people from the countryside and little towns hear this, they say hey, we do not want the Germans to tell us what to do.

But yes, at the same time the recent surveys show huge support of the Polish society for the EU. 97 percent of the population is in favour of Polish membership. Among the supporters of Law and Justice it is 92 percent. Nobody in Poland wants an exit; this will never be supported. There is no ground for this. Even the support for taking up the euro is growing, it is now at 53 percent, while five years ago it was at 30 percent.

This is not necessarily a contradiction – people see it often at two levels: In general the EU is a very good thing, but what is not good is the German domination of the community. So I would say that a certain category of people are not against the EU per se, but against using the EU by Germans and French to steamroll over others – which is a result of the government propaganda.

The whole issue of the „recovery fund money“ could be solved easily, if the Polish governement came up with a solid reform of the judiciary, safeguarding its full independence. That should be quite easy. Why don't they do it?

The governement does not want to step back. They are convinced that they are doing the right thing with this reform and they are refusing the EU judgement. In their opinion Brussels is using this as a pretext to replace the current government in Warsaw, to push them out of power. All this is further complicated and exacerbated by the fact that Donald Tusk, the opposition leader, used to be the president of the European Council. Kaczynski hates Tusk. And now this politician, well connected in Europe, is his main opponent able to win the next election. Not only Tusk, but all the EU institutions and the people in charge therefore become the enemies. During the election campaign, Tusk and the EU as well as Germany might be the same target, difficult to distinguish. It is a very tough political fight.

For an outsider it is still difficult to grasp the official line – pro-EU yet anti-EU at the same time….

They are explaining it in a very simple way. The European project has been a very good idea and worked very well for some time also for Poland. But unfortunately it was taken over by the left and moderate right, by progressive mentality, very leftist, which made the EU into a horrible space with identity problems and gender theories, LGBTQ freedoms and simply everything that is against values like family or christianity. So, in a nutshell, the idea of the European union is good, but the direction it has taken is wrong. So what they want to do is to take it back to the roots. They are not anti-EU per se, but anti-EU of today.

So in a way the classical eurosceptic vision of the European integration? Just the common market?

They prefer to call this a „eurorealistic“ vision. Explaining that at the beginning the European integration was an idea of the Christian Democrats, all the traditional values were respected and it was a very good project. Nations keeping their own sovereignty and cooperating in order to avoid conflicts and wars. Why should we need something more? We do not need a superstate, that is a completely crazy idea, they say. We do not need a federal Europe governed by the Germans.

Nowadays the main emphasis is on the notion of national sovereignty vis-a-vis the power of the EU institutions. According to the Polish governement these institutions – Commission, Council, but even the tribunals – are trying to push, to dominate, to tell us what to do. And we have to fight back, stop them from doing this, because it is a violation of the treaties. So according to the current Polish rulers it is not Poland who has a problem with rule of law, it is the EU. The Commission who violates the treaties because it oversteps its mandate. And all the manoeuvres are coordinated by the Germans. The best proof? Who is the president of the Commission? A German! Germans systematically put their own people or their puppets from other countries like Tusk in the important positions.

These are indeed extreme positions; it is difficult to imagine Poland surviving in the EU with these opinions in medium term. Is the governement aware of this? Of having no allies, except Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister?

Yes, Mr Kaczynski has had a lot of hope in Orban. Now of course they have an issue with him because of Russia. But they hope that other European governments might be slowly changing. Now they are hoping for Italy, that Giorgia Meloni might be taking over. Their logic is the following: If we cannot be heard, nobody in Brussels is listening to our position, then we have to change the EU from the inside focusing on national governements, which are crucial for the direction the EU will take in the future. If you have a liberal government, like the Macron one, it is obvious that they will not listen to a conservative government in Poland. But if Marine Le Pen takes over, that would be a very different thing. Or Matteo Salvini in Italy.

But Le Pen and Salvini have both been quite close to Putin. Is that not an issue for the Polish conservatives, who claim to be very staunchly anti-Russian?

Of course it is an issue. But let us be very open and frank – the right-wing conservatism has common symptoms, even if officially there is no sympathy. You simply see that some rhetorics of the current Polish governement are very close to the rhetoric of the Kremlin, like for instance saying that Europe has lost its values, that it has become completely non-christian, so it is not able to fight for anything noble because it does not have any identity any more and so on. Putin is saying the same thing, after all.

So do we now have to prepare for a period of Polish blockages and blackmails, as long as the EU money will be denied to the governemnt?

It is difficult to foresee what will happen. There are different rumours. The elections are still one year ahead and many things can happen.

Now is the moment of deception, because the government thought that the Commission will finally give up. Also because of the Polish role in the Russian war in Ukraine, and also because of the respect to the Polish society and its behaviour vis-a-vis the Ukrainian refugees, demonstrated all over the West. Many people in Europe were saying that the time has come to be less tough on Warsaw. I think that Ursula von der Leyen was ready for concessions and that it was the European Parliament which made her change her mind. So she is also somehow in a trap. The governement did not dare for the time being to request the payment, as a refusal would send a dramatic and risky message.

One scenario is that they will now become very tough. They will continue pushing for the money. And if they do not get it, they will become very very anti-Brussels.

The other one is based on rumours, according to which there might be a political game under preparation within the United Right. For instance they might be planning changing the prime minister next year. This would enable them to make concessions, change the law on the judiciary according to the EU wishes, present the request and get the money just before the elections. That would be a huge success and it would make a lot of people happy – and substantially influence the outcome of the elections.